WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL ®

I don't know about you, but all these recent announcements by local, regional and national real estate groups extolling the rising sales numbers of new and existing single-family homes and condominiums have me confused.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm all for rising sales.  But I'm also realistic enough to know those sales are being generated by a single solitary factor - LOWER PRICES.  And they are dropping further every day.

Keep in mind: Lower prices mean only one thing for the builder, developer, lender or owner - less anticipated profit, or in some instances, no profit at all.

Now from a builder's or developer's point of view, less profit or no profit can be a company killer.  We have already seen several well-known building national organizations merge after lower sales volume crippled one of the firms.

But invariably, these local, regional and national housing trade groups seldom factor in the discounted prices in their babbling and excitement over growing month-over-month sales.

 Oh, one or two of them might insert the "decline" in sales prices from period to period, but most bury the discounted price factor in their handouts to the media and other industry groups.

Sure, the current average 5.22 percent mortgage rate (according to Freddie Mac) and the federal $8,000 stimulus tax credit for first-time buyers help as well, but lower prices clinch the deal  every time.

 So do all-cash purchases which are being done more and more, according to recorded transactions in almost every county.

(To receive the $8,000 tax credit, buyers must close their deals by Nov. 30 of this year, unless the Obama Administration extends the deadline.)

To digress for a moment: Talk about low mortgage rates.  When I bought my Florida residence 37 years ago, the rate was 8.75 percent - and I thought that was a good rate at the time.

But back to the housing sales picture and condo prices particularly.

According to the most knowledgeable condo brokers in the country -- and they are too many to mention here at this time --  the markets with the most discounted prices are Miami first, Orlando second; Las Vegas third and Phoenix fourth.

The prices are down 55 percent in Miami; 50 percent in Orlando; 45 percent in Las Vegas and 40 percent in Phoenix.  And the prices are expected to drop another 10 percent to 15 percent by the end of this year. 

In Miami, some developers already have lopped $100,000 or more off the net selling price  of an entire building.

On today's Main Page, Real Estate Channel  provides the first of a two-part  exclusive industry overview of the Miami-Dade County condo market.  Part Two will be posted Monday, Aug. 31.  Stay tuned.

And that's the way I see it - for now. 

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