WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL ®

I don't know about you, but I am asked just about every day, by family,  friends and associates, "When do you think the Recession will end?"  Especially for the real estate industry as a whole.

I usually have a quick answer for those who want it fast and clean - December 2010, mostly in the Midwest and Southwest.

And a slower reply for those who are patient enough to give me another minute or two - June 2011 for the rest of the country.

How do I know this?  My trusty Crystal Ball, of course.

Seriously  though, the answers largely are calculated from the Help Wanted Ads in local daily and weekly newspapers, and from the inventory of unsold new and existing houses.

I have written previously about the home inventory factor so I won't spend a lot of time on that subject right now.  Only to point out that about six months ago, the national inventory of unsold houses, both new and existing, stood at 11months, according to several independent research groups who track these numbers.
 
Today, the inventory is down to about six months - lower in some markets, higher in others.

That's good news, of course - unless the builders somehow find sugar-daddies to bankroll them into a whole new wave of fresh construction.  That will alter the inventory picture completely, but I don't think that is going to happen.  Lenders have learned their lesson. 

My Crystal Ball reminds me every real estate market will come out of the Recession at a different time.  It won't happen all at once for everybody.

But aside from the inventory factor, there is the crucial jobs category, of course. 

The Recession, now in its 18th month, will continue to languish unless new jobs are created quickly.  I'm talking about  jobs that pay a family a decent living wage in industries that are growing and expanding.

Decent paying jobs will allow families to rejuvenate their buying cycle; jump-start the retail sector; and convince bankers and developers new commercial and residential projects once again are needed in various markets. 

To kickstart the jobs engine, local, regional and national businesses need operating loans from local and national lenders, as they had received before the Recession began. That's obvious and has been discussed by the Talking TV Heads over and over again.

The local community banks are trying hard to support businesses striving to create new jobs. But those jobs, so far, are not to be seen in any great quantity. 

Out of curiosity, I checked on three specific categories in my local daily newspaper in Florida this week to see what the Help Wanteds were announcing.

I checked under Information Technology, Construction and Retail.  Here is what I found:

Information Technology -- 10 jobs in all of Florida.  Five in Orlando, two each in Lake Mary and Sanford, and one in Winter Park.

Retail - Eight jobs in the entire state.  Seven in Orlando, one in Clermont.

Construction - Five jobs in all of Florida. Two each in Orlando and Maitland; one in Altamonte Springs.

That is a sad commentary, my friends.  Sad because it is telling us the Recession is a long way from being over.

The Great Depression lasted from about 1930 to about 1940, depending on whose history tome you pick up from time to time.

This Recession could run from 2008 through 2012.  I pray not -- but even my trusty Crystal Ball won't give me a better reading at this time.

And that's the way I see it - for now. 

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